Here’s a conversation I’ve had a dozen times this year. A client opens their City of Winnipeg property tax statement, sees a line called the “Homeowners Affordability Tax Credit,” and calls me: “Ted, what happened to the Education Property Tax Credit I used to get? Did they take it away?” The short answer is no — they didn’t take anything away, they renamed and replaced it, and for most homeowners the new credit is actually a little bigger. But the details matter, especially if you own a condo, a higher-end home, or a rental, so let’s walk through exactly what you get and how to make sure you actually receive it.

The quick version: what changed

Back in 2025, Manitoba scrapped the old Education Property Tax Credit (EPTC) and replaced it with the Homeowners Affordability Tax Credit (HATC). At the same time, the province wound down the old School Tax Rebate for residential properties. So the alphabet soup you may remember from past tax bills — EPTC, School Tax Rebate — has been folded into one credit for homeowners.

The good news is that the HATC has been climbing each year:

• 2025: maximum credit of $1,500
• 2026: maximum credit of $1,600
• 2027: maximum credit of $1,700

The credit works as the lesser of that maximum and the gross school taxes on your principal residence. In plain terms: if the school-tax portion of your bill is $1,600 or more this year, you get the full $1,600. If your school taxes come in under that, you get whatever that lower amount is. For a typical Winnipeg home, most owners land at the full credit.

It only applies to the home you live in

This is the part that trips people up. The HATC applies to principal residences only — the home you actually live in. It does not apply to a rental property, a lake cottage, a second home, or commercial property. So if you own a rental in Transcona or a cottage out at Falcon Lake, don’t expect the credit on those tax bills.

The province defines your principal residence the way you’d expect — it’s where you actually live most of the time, and it lines up with the address on your driver’s licence, your vehicle registration, your health card, and your income tax return. You and your spouse or common-law partner can only claim one principal residence between you. If you’ve separated and are living in two different homes, only one of those properties can carry the credit.

Renting instead of owning? You’re not left out — you may qualify for the separate Renters Affordability Tax Credit, which is claimed on your income tax return.

Condo and multi-unit owners: read this part

If you own a condo that’s individually assessed — which most Winnipeg condos are — you get the HATC as an advance right on your property tax statement, exactly like a single-family homeowner. No special steps.

The wrinkle is for owner-occupants of a duplex, triplex, or similar multi-unit building. If you live in a property that contains more than one dwelling unit, you can’t take the credit as an advance on the tax statement — but you can still claim it on your personal income tax return. Same money, different door.

How you actually receive it — don’t leave it on the table

For most homeowners, the HATC shows up automatically as an advance on your City of Winnipeg property tax statement, which lowers the amount you owe. To get it that way, your municipality needs to know the home is your principal residence — you have to have self-declared it. The reassuring part: if you claimed it last year, your declaration carries forward automatically, so most people don’t have to do a thing.

Two situations where you need to take action:

• You’ve never declared your principal residence with the City (for example, you’re a newer homeowner) — contact the City of Winnipeg’s Assessment and Taxation department to self-declare so the credit lands on your statement.
• You were eligible but the credit didn’t appear on your statement — you don’t lose it. You can claim the HATC on your personal income tax return when you file.

If you pay your property taxes monthly through the City’s Tax Instalment Payment Plan (TIPP), the credit is factored into how your annual bill is spread out. If the numbers on your statement look off, a quick call to the City clears it up.

What’s coming in 2027 — and who needs to pay attention

The maximum credit rises again to $1,700 for the 2027 tax year. But 2027 also introduces something new: a phase-out for higher-assessed homes. For properties assessed over $1,000,000, the maximum benefit shrinks by $3.40 for every $1,000 of assessed value above that million-dollar mark, and homes assessed at $1,500,000 or more will no longer receive the credit at all.

For the vast majority of Winnipeg homeowners — where a detached home averaged around $454,000 this summer — this changes nothing. But if you own a higher-end property in River Heights, Tuxedo, or a newer executive build, it’s worth knowing your credit could start to taper in 2027.

A couple of related credits worth knowing

If you’re a senior, the Seniors’ School Tax Rebate is still around, worth up to $235, reduced by 1% of family net income over $40,000, and claimed on your income tax return. And if you own a farm property, the 50% School Tax Rebate on farmland continues unchanged and is applied directly to your tax statement.

The bottom line

The Homeowners Affordability Tax Credit isn’t a mortgage product, but it’s real money off the cost of owning your home — up to $1,600 this year and $1,700 next year — and I’d rather my clients understand it than leave it sitting on the table. If you’ve recently bought your first home in Winnipeg, moved, separated, or you’re just not sure whether the credit is showing up on your statement, it’s worth a five-minute check.

I help buyers and homeowners across Winnipeg and Manitoba sort out exactly these kinds of details every day. If you’ve got a question about the HATC, your property taxes, or anything else on the homeownership side, call me at 204-890-2446 or email ted@tedvailas.com — happy to help.

This article is general information, not tax advice. For your specific situation, confirm details with the Manitoba Tax Assistance Office or the City of Winnipeg Assessment and Taxation department.

Every spring I get the same phone call: “Ted, we want to start looking, but we heard we missed the market.” And every fall I watch the buyers who waited quietly get better deals than the ones who fought through the April bidding wars. If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines this year, I want to make the case that September and October in Winnipeg might be the smartest window you’ll get in 2026 — and it has nothing to do with the weather.

The numbers are quietly tilting toward buyers

Here’s what most people don’t realize about our market right now. In July, there were 4,005 active MLS® listings across the region — up 9% from the same time last year. Meanwhile, sales came in at 1,475, down 9% year-over-year. More homes on the market, fewer buyers competing for them. That’s the exact combination that takes the pressure off you at the offer table.

And prices haven’t run away. The average detached home sold for $454,264 in July, up a modest 2% from a year ago. Condos averaged $290,522, also up just 2%. But look closer at the condo side: sales there were down 21% from last July. If you’re a first-time buyer or a downsizer eyeing a condo or townhouse, that’s a segment where you have real negotiating room heading into the fall.

None of this means prices are falling — Winnipeg has stayed remarkably steady, which is one of the reasons I love this market. It means the frantic, over-asking, waive-every-condition energy of the spring has cooled. You get to actually think.

Why fall specifically?

Three things line up in September and October that don’t line up in the spring.

Motivated sellers. A home that’s still on the market in September has usually been listed since spring or early summer. Those sellers have watched the busy season come and go, and many of them want to be done before the holidays and before winter showings slow everything down. Motivated sellers are flexible sellers — on price, on closing dates, and on the little things.

Less competition from other buyers. A lot of families take themselves out of the market once school starts. That thins the herd right when inventory is still healthy. Fewer competing offers means you’re far less likely to end up in a bidding war where the sale price runs past what the home will actually appraise for.

A clear runway to close before winter. If you get an accepted offer in September or October, you can comfortably close and move before the deep freeze and the December chaos. Try coordinating movers and a possession date in the last week of December and you’ll understand why I push clients toward a fall timeline.

Rates are cooperating, too

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% again on July 15 — the sixth hold in a row — and markets widely expect another hold at the next decision on September 2. For you, that means the rate environment is stable and predictable, not a moving target. As of early August, the sharpest 5-year fixed rates were sitting around 3.94% for insured buyers, with variable options near 3.40%. Those are workable numbers, and stability is exactly what you want when you’re planning a purchase a few weeks out.

How to actually use this window

A good fall buy doesn’t happen by accident. Here’s the short checklist I walk clients through:

• Get pre-approved now, not after you find the house. A pre-approval locks a rate for up to 120 days, so getting one in August protects you through the entire fall shopping season — even if rates move.
• Know your real number. Pre-approval tells you what you qualify for, but we’ll talk about what payment actually feels comfortable, factoring in property taxes, condo fees, and closing costs.
• Line up your down payment paperwork early. If any of it is a gift from family, or comes out of an FHSA or RRSP, we want that documented before you’re writing an offer, not scrambling after.
• Be ready to move quickly on the right home. A calmer market doesn’t mean a slow one — good, fairly-priced homes still sell. Being pre-approved lets you write a strong, clean offer the same day.
• Target a possession date you can live with. Aim to close and move before mid-December so you’re not coordinating a move around the holidays and Winnipeg winter.

The bottom line

The spring market gets all the attention, but the buyers who win in Winnipeg are often the ones shopping when everyone else has gone quiet. Right now you’ve got more listings, steadier prices, less competition, and stable rates all pointing the same direction. That combination doesn’t last forever.

If you’ve been thinking about buying — whether it’s your first place, a move-up, or a downsize — let’s get your pre-approval sorted now so you’re ready to move the moment the right home shows up this fall. Call me at 204-890-2446 or email ted@tedvailas.com, and let’s build a plan around your timeline.

Market figures are from the Winnipeg Regional Real Estate Board’s July 2026 statistics. Rate and Bank of Canada figures are current as of early August 2026 and are for illustration only — your actual rate depends on your application. This article is general information, not financial advice.

If you follow the headlines, you could be forgiven for thinking Canada is emptying out. For the first time in living memory, Statistics Canada reported that the country’s population actually shrank over the past year — an estimated drop of roughly 234,600 people between July 2025 and this past March, including a decline of about 55,000 in the first quarter of 2026 alone. That’s a genuinely unusual number for a country that has grown almost every single year since Confederation.

But here in Winnipeg, where so much of our housing demand is tied to newcomers settling in Manitoba, that story never quite matched what I see on the ground. And according to a new report from CIBC, the “shrinking Canada” narrative may be about to get rewritten.

What CIBC is actually saying

CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal — one of the most-watched voices in Canadian housing economics — argues that Statistics Canada has likely overstated how many temporary residents have left the country. Here’s the gist of his case: a large number of people whose study or work permits expired didn’t actually pack up and go home. Many stayed in Canada legally, having been granted extensions or bridged onto other forms of temporary status by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Those people are still here, still renting apartments, still buying groceries — but they slipped through the cracks of StatCan’s interim estimates.

StatCan has already signalled that its next population update, due in September, will contain “material revisions.” Tal expects the adjustments tied to non-permanent residents to be larger than usual. CIBC’s own math suggests the revisions could add roughly 160,000 people to 2025’s growth figure, and about 210,000 in each of 2026 and 2027, compared with today’s estimates.

Flip that around and the picture changes completely. Instead of a country that shrank last year, CIBC’s scenario has Canada growing — modestly, but growing — in 2025 and continuing to expand through 2026.

Let’s keep this in perspective

It’s important to be honest about scale here, because this is where a lot of coverage gets breathless. Even if CIBC is right, we are not returning to the immigration boom of a couple of years ago. Canada added an eye-popping 797,555 people in 2024. CIBC’s projections — after the expected upward revisions — still show growth of just 7,564 in 2025, about 56,000 in 2026, and 139,000 in 2027. The share of the population made up of non-permanent residents is still falling, from 7.7% in 2024 to a projected 6.1% in 2026.

So the takeaway isn’t “the floodgates are reopening.” It’s subtler and, for anyone making a housing decision, more useful: Canada probably isn’t shrinking, but growth has downshifted hard from a sprint to a walk. These are also estimates and projections, not confirmed figures — the actual revisions land in September, and even CIBC assumes only a partial correction.

Why a data revision matters for your mortgage decision

You might reasonably ask what a Statistics Canada footnote has to do with your mortgage. More than you’d think — because housing demand is downstream of how many people actually live here.

When forecasters believed the population was flat or falling, it fed a bearish story: fewer people, softer demand, weaker prices. Some national forecasts, including CMHC’s, have been leaning toward price softness on exactly that kind of reasoning. If it turns out there are hundreds of thousands more residents than the official count showed — people who need somewhere to live right now — then the assumed slack in the market is smaller than advertised. That’s especially true for rentals, which are the first stop for most newcomers before they buy.

There’s a knock-on effect worth flagging too: Tal notes the same revision could ripple into Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey, which folds in population changes on a 12-month rolling basis. A big upward revision would seep into the jobs data gradually, and could temporarily nudge the reported unemployment rate in ways that don’t reflect what’s really happening. The Bank of Canada watches that data closely when it sets rates — so a quirk in the population count can, indirectly, touch the very interest rate on your mortgage.

The Winnipeg and Manitoba angle

This is where it gets local. Manitoba’s population growth leans heavily on immigration, and our province has one of the country’s most active Provincial Nominee Programs — the Manitoba PNP has been a steady pipeline of newcomers who choose Winnipeg specifically because it’s affordable and welcoming. Add in international students at the University of Manitoba and University of Winnipeg, and you have a base of housing demand that doesn’t just evaporate when a national number ticks negative.

What does that mean in practical terms?

• Rentals stay competitive. If Winnipeg has more residents than the official tally suggests, our already-tight rental vacancy is unlikely to loosen up much. For investors, that supports the case for a well-located rental — the kind I wrote about recently in my post on buying a rental property in Winnipeg.
• Entry-level demand has a floor. Newcomers who rent for a couple of years are tomorrow’s first-time buyers. Steady population underneath the market makes a dramatic price drop in Winnipeg’s affordable segments less likely than the gloomiest national headlines imply.
• Don’t try to time the market on a data revision. The honest answer is that nobody — not CIBC, not me — knows exactly how the September numbers will land. A revision is a reason to stay informed, not a reason to rush or to freeze.

The bottom line

The “Canada is shrinking” story was always a little too tidy, and it looks like the data behind it is about to get a second look. For Winnipeg buyers and owners, the practical message is reassuring but measured: our local demand base is probably sturdier than the scariest national forecasts suggest, but we’re still in a slower-growth era where careful planning beats guesswork.

If you’re weighing a purchase, a rental investment, or a renewal and you’re trying to figure out what all this macro noise actually means for your numbers, that’s exactly the conversation I love to have. Call me at 204-890-2446 or email ted@tedvailas.com, and we’ll cut through the headlines and look at your real situation.

Sources: CIBC Economics (Benjamin Tal) and Statistics Canada, as reported by Canadian Mortgage Trends, July 28, 2026. Figures cited are estimates and projections; Statistics Canada’s revised population data is expected in September 2026. This article is general information for Manitoba homeowners and buyers, not financial advice.

For nearly a year, Canadian mortgage borrowers have been asking the same question: “When will rates come down again?” Heading into the Bank of Canada rate announcement on July 15, 2026, it may be time to ask a different one: what if the next move is up?

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since October 2025. But for the first time in years, bond markets are pricing in a small chance of a rate hike — not a cut. Whether you’re buying your first home in Winnipeg, renewing this summer, or riding a variable rate, here’s what you need to know before July 15.

What’s Happening on July 15?

The Bank of Canada makes its next interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 15, 2026, at 9:45 a.m. ET, alongside its quarterly Monetary Policy Report. Markets overwhelmingly expect another hold at 2.25% — but they’re also pricing in roughly a 5% chance of a quarter-point increase, and essentially no chance of a cut.

That’s a big shift in tone. Through 2024 and 2025, every hold came with the expectation that cuts were coming. Now, most bank and economist forecasts see the Bank holding through the summer and fall, with the risk tilted toward higher rates rather than lower ones.

Why Is a Hike Even Being Discussed?

One word: inflation. Headline inflation has climbed to 2.8%, pushed up by a spike in gasoline prices of roughly 29%. That’s above the Bank’s 2% target, and central banks raise rates to cool inflation.

The good news is that domestic price pressures are actually behaving. Shelter inflation has cooled to around 1.8%. The Bank tends to look past temporary energy shocks — which is why most forecasters still expect a hold. But if high gas prices start feeding into other prices, the conversation changes quickly. Add in a contentious CUSMA (the Canada–U.S.–Mexico trade agreement) review beginning this July, and there’s real uncertainty in both directions.

What This Means If Your Mortgage Is Renewing

2026 is the biggest renewal year in Canadian history — nearly half of all mortgages, over a million households, come up for renewal this year. If yours is one of them, the “wait for lower rates” strategy has quietly expired.

Currently, insured 5-year fixed rates sit around 3.94%, 3-year fixed around 3.84%, and 5-year variable around 3.30%. If the Bank holds, those numbers likely stay put. If it hikes — now or later this year — variable rates rise immediately and fixed rates may follow.

One more thing many borrowers still don’t know: under rules updated by OSFI, if you switch lenders at renewal without increasing your loan amount or amortization, you no longer face the stress test. That means shopping your renewal is easier than it’s been in years — you’re not stuck taking your bank’s first offer.

What This Means for Winnipeg Buyers and Homeowners

Here in Winnipeg, the market isn’t waiting for the Bank of Canada. The average home price hit $427,223 in May 2026, up 3.6% from a year earlier, and detached homes set a record for the month at an average of $477,313. With about 2.2 months of supply, Winnipeg remains a seller’s market — one of the steadier markets in the country even as some larger cities are still finding their footing.

For Winnipeg buyers, that combination matters: prices are grinding higher while the era of falling rates appears to be over. If you’re pre-approved at today’s rates, a rate hold on July 15 keeps your buying power intact — but waiting for a cheaper mortgage could mean paying more for the house instead. A mortgage pre-approval locks in a rate for up to 120 days, protecting you if rates move up.

Fixed or Variable Right Now?

There’s no one-size answer, but the math has shifted. Variable rates are currently lower than fixed — attractive if the Bank keeps holding. But variable borrowers now carry hike risk for the first time in years. A 3-year fixed has become a popular middle path: it locks in certainty without committing to five years, in case rates do eventually drift lower. Your income, timeline, and stress tolerance all matter here — this is exactly the fixed vs. variable conversation worth having before July 15, not after.

The Bottom Line

The most likely outcome on July 15 is a hold at 2.25%. But the safety net of “rates will keep falling” is gone, and the smart move — whether you’re buying in Winnipeg or renewing anywhere in Manitoba — is to plan for rates staying flat and protect yourself against the chance they rise.

If your renewal is coming up in the next 12 months, or you’re thinking about buying this year, let’s talk before the Bank does. I’ll shop 90+ lenders to find the right mortgage for your situation — at no cost to you.

Call me at 204-890-2446 or apply online today.

Rates and market data cited are as of early July 2026 and subject to change. Sources: Bank of Canada, Winnipeg Regional Real Estate Board, WOWA, Mortgage Sandbox.