The short answer: if your mortgage comes up for renewal in 2026, do not sign the first offer your lender mails you. Roughly 60% of all Canadian mortgages renew in 2025–2026, and borrowers coming off pandemic-era 5-year fixed rates face the largest payment increases — about 20% on average, according to the Bank of Canada. But rates have come down from their 2023–2024 peak, competition for renewal business is intense, and since November 2024 most homeowners can switch lenders at renewal without re-passing the stress test. Renewal is the one moment your mortgage is fully in play. Use it.

Why 2026 renewals are different

2026 is the second half of Canada’s “renewal wall.” The Bank of Canada estimates that about 60% of all outstanding mortgages renew in 2025 or 2026, a wave created by the surge of home buying and refinancing at record-low rates in 2020–2021.

What renewal looks like in 2026 depends heavily on the mortgage you’re coming off:

  • 5-year fixed (taken in 2021): the hardest hit. The Bank of Canada projects an average payment increase of about 20% for this group — you locked in when 5-year fixed rates were at historic lows.
  • Variable rate, variable payment: many will see payments decline around 5–7%, because the Bank of Canada’s policy rate has fallen well below its 2023–2024 peak.
  • Variable rate, fixed payment: the widest spread. Some see relief, but about 10% of these borrowers face increases of more than 40% at renewal, because their fixed payments covered less principal than planned.
  • Short-term fixed (2023–2024 originations): close to a quarter of all mortgage holders are expected to see payments decrease by the end of 2026 — mostly people who took 1–3 year terms at the rate peak.

For a deeper look at the payment math, see our post: Renewing your mortgage in 2026? Why payments are jumping — and how to pay less.

Where rates stand right now

As of mid-July 2026, the Bank of Canada’s policy rate sits at 2.25%, where it has held since the June 10 decision. The next announcement is July 15, 2026 — our take on what it means for renewers is here.

On the fixed side, the lowest nationally advertised 5-year fixed rates were around 3.94% as of July 11, 2026 (Ratehub), while big-bank advertised specials ran meaningfully higher. The spread between a bank’s first renewal offer and the best broker-negotiated rate is exactly where a renewal decision pays for itself. Check our current rates page or run your own numbers with the mortgage payment calculator.

What a typical 2021-to-2026 renewal looks like (worked example)

Say you took a $300,000 mortgage in July 2021 at 1.99% on a 5-year fixed with a 25-year amortization — a common Winnipeg scenario that year.

At origination (2021) At renewal (2026)
Balance $300,000 ~$251,300
Rate 1.99% 4.29% (illustrative bank offer)
Monthly payment $1,269 $1,556
Increase +$287/month (+23%)

Now the part that matters: at renewal, a 0.35% improvement — 3.94% instead of 4.29% on the same 20-year remaining amortization — cuts the payment to about $1,510 and saves roughly $4,100 in interest over the 5-year term, while leaving you about $1,350 further ahead on principal. That’s the value of shopping a renewal, on a single average-sized Winnipeg mortgage. (Figures calculated with Canadian semi-annual compounding; run your own scenario on the payment calculator.)

Your renewal timeline: start at 6 months, lock at 120 days

  • 6 months out: review your mortgage — balance, remaining amortization, prepayment room, and what terms make sense now. Your situation has changed since you signed; your mortgage should too. See Determine the Right Term.
  • 120 days out: most lenders will hold a rate for 90–120 days. This is when a broker can lock a competing offer as a free insurance policy — if rates rise before your renewal date, you’re protected; if they fall, you take the lower rate.
  • 30 days out: your current lender’s renewal letter typically arrives late, by design, leaving little time to shop. If you’ve started early, this letter becomes your negotiating floor, not your only option.
  • Renewal date: sign the best offer — which is sometimes your existing lender’s, once they know you have a competing one.

If you do nothing: most lenders auto-renew you, often into a 6-month term or their posted rate — among the most expensive ways to hold a mortgage in Canada. Never let a renewal date pass unmanaged.

Your five options at renewal

  1. Sign the first offer. Fast, and usually costs you the most. Lenders price first offers knowing most people sign them.
  2. Negotiate with your current lender. A competing quote in hand changes the conversation. No penalty, minimal paperwork.
  3. Switch lenders (a “straight switch”). Move the same balance and amortization to a lender with a better rate. No penalty at maturity. Many lenders cover transfer and appraisal costs to win renewal business; a discharge/assignment fee from your old lender may apply.
  4. Refinance at renewal. Increase the loan to consolidate debt or fund renovations, or extend the amortization to lower payments. This is treated as a new mortgage — the stress test applies. See Refinance and Home Equity.
  5. Change the shape of the mortgage. Shorten the amortization or use prepayment room if you can absorb a higher payment; a fixed-to-variable or variable-to-fixed change is also on the table — see Fixed vs. Variable.

The stress test at renewal: 2026 rules

This is where the most outdated advice circulates, because the rules changed in late 2024:

  • Renewing with your current lender: no requalification, no stress test. They already hold the risk.
  • Switching lenders — straight switch: since November 21, 2024, OSFI no longer applies the minimum qualifying rate (stress test) to straight switches of uninsured mortgages. A straight switch means the loan amount stays the same (up to $3,000 may be added to cover transaction costs) and the amortization schedule is unchanged. Insured mortgages were already exempt. The new lender still underwrites you — income, credit, and property are verified — but you qualify at your contract rate, not contract-plus-2%.
  • Refinancing at renewal (more money or longer amortization): full requalification, stress test included, at any federally regulated lender.

The Manitoba wrinkle: Winnipeg’s credit unions — Access, Assiniboine, Cambrian and others — are provincially regulated (not by OSFI), so they were never bound by the federal B-20 stress test. Some apply an equivalent test voluntarily; others can qualify a borrower at the contract rate even on a refinance. For a Winnipeg homeowner whose ratios are tight, that difference alone can decide whether a renewal-time refinance is possible. This is one of the reasons a local broker who deals with both federally regulated lenders and Manitoba credit unions sees options an individual bank can’t show you.

What it costs to switch lenders in Manitoba

A straight switch is cheaper than most people expect: the typical costs are a discharge or assignment fee charged by your outgoing lender, plus appraisal and transfer/legal costs — and many lenders cover some or all of the transfer and appraisal costs to win your business. Ask for the all-in number before you commit; we do this comparison for every renewal client. (A refinance involves legal work on a new mortgage registration and costs more than a straight switch.)

Winnipeg renewal FAQ

Do I have to requalify to renew my mortgage?

Not with your current lender. If you switch lenders on a straight switch, you’re underwritten but not stress-tested (since November 21, 2024). If you refinance, you fully requalify.

How early can I renew?

Most lenders offer early renewal within 120–180 days of maturity without penalty. Breaking the term earlier than that triggers a prepayment penalty — sometimes worth it, usually not; the math has to be run case by case.

What happens if I ignore my renewal letter?

Most lenders auto-renew you, commonly into a short term or posted rate that can be far above market. It’s the most expensive default option in Canadian mortgages.

My income dropped since 2021 — am I stuck with my bank?

Not necessarily. A straight switch doesn’t require passing the stress test anymore, and Manitoba credit unions set their own qualifying rules. Both routes regularly work for borrowers a big bank turns away.

Will the July 15 Bank of Canada decision change my renewal rate?

It affects variable rates directly and market expectations for fixed rates indirectly (fixed rates track bond yields). If your renewal is within 120 days, locking a rate hold before an announcement costs nothing and protects you either way. More: our July 15 preview.

Does using a broker for a renewal cost me anything?

No — on standard residential renewals and switches the lender pays the broker. You get the market comparison for free. Contact Ted or see the FAQ.

Ted Vailas is a Winnipeg mortgage broker with Dominion Lending Centres. Renewal reviews are free and carry no obligation — send your renewal letter before you sign it: contact.

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