If you follow the headlines, you could be forgiven for thinking Canada is emptying out. For the first time in living memory, Statistics Canada reported that the country’s population actually shrank over the past year — an estimated drop of roughly 234,600 people between July 2025 and this past March, including a decline of about 55,000 in the first quarter of 2026 alone. That’s a genuinely unusual number for a country that has grown almost every single year since Confederation.
But here in Winnipeg, where so much of our housing demand is tied to newcomers settling in Manitoba, that story never quite matched what I see on the ground. And according to a new report from CIBC, the “shrinking Canada” narrative may be about to get rewritten.
What CIBC is actually saying
CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal — one of the most-watched voices in Canadian housing economics — argues that Statistics Canada has likely overstated how many temporary residents have left the country. Here’s the gist of his case: a large number of people whose study or work permits expired didn’t actually pack up and go home. Many stayed in Canada legally, having been granted extensions or bridged onto other forms of temporary status by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Those people are still here, still renting apartments, still buying groceries — but they slipped through the cracks of StatCan’s interim estimates.
StatCan has already signalled that its next population update, due in September, will contain “material revisions.” Tal expects the adjustments tied to non-permanent residents to be larger than usual. CIBC’s own math suggests the revisions could add roughly 160,000 people to 2025’s growth figure, and about 210,000 in each of 2026 and 2027, compared with today’s estimates.
Flip that around and the picture changes completely. Instead of a country that shrank last year, CIBC’s scenario has Canada growing — modestly, but growing — in 2025 and continuing to expand through 2026.
Let’s keep this in perspective
It’s important to be honest about scale here, because this is where a lot of coverage gets breathless. Even if CIBC is right, we are not returning to the immigration boom of a couple of years ago. Canada added an eye-popping 797,555 people in 2024. CIBC’s projections — after the expected upward revisions — still show growth of just 7,564 in 2025, about 56,000 in 2026, and 139,000 in 2027. The share of the population made up of non-permanent residents is still falling, from 7.7% in 2024 to a projected 6.1% in 2026.
So the takeaway isn’t “the floodgates are reopening.” It’s subtler and, for anyone making a housing decision, more useful: Canada probably isn’t shrinking, but growth has downshifted hard from a sprint to a walk. These are also estimates and projections, not confirmed figures — the actual revisions land in September, and even CIBC assumes only a partial correction.
Why a data revision matters for your mortgage decision
You might reasonably ask what a Statistics Canada footnote has to do with your mortgage. More than you’d think — because housing demand is downstream of how many people actually live here.
When forecasters believed the population was flat or falling, it fed a bearish story: fewer people, softer demand, weaker prices. Some national forecasts, including CMHC’s, have been leaning toward price softness on exactly that kind of reasoning. If it turns out there are hundreds of thousands more residents than the official count showed — people who need somewhere to live right now — then the assumed slack in the market is smaller than advertised. That’s especially true for rentals, which are the first stop for most newcomers before they buy.
There’s a knock-on effect worth flagging too: Tal notes the same revision could ripple into Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey, which folds in population changes on a 12-month rolling basis. A big upward revision would seep into the jobs data gradually, and could temporarily nudge the reported unemployment rate in ways that don’t reflect what’s really happening. The Bank of Canada watches that data closely when it sets rates — so a quirk in the population count can, indirectly, touch the very interest rate on your mortgage.
The Winnipeg and Manitoba angle
This is where it gets local. Manitoba’s population growth leans heavily on immigration, and our province has one of the country’s most active Provincial Nominee Programs — the Manitoba PNP has been a steady pipeline of newcomers who choose Winnipeg specifically because it’s affordable and welcoming. Add in international students at the University of Manitoba and University of Winnipeg, and you have a base of housing demand that doesn’t just evaporate when a national number ticks negative.
What does that mean in practical terms?
- Rentals stay competitive. If Winnipeg has more residents than the official tally suggests, our already-tight rental vacancy is unlikely to loosen up much. For investors, that supports the case for a well-located rental — the kind I wrote about recently in my post on buying a rental property in Winnipeg.
- Entry-level demand has a floor. Newcomers who rent for a couple of years are tomorrow’s first-time buyers. Steady population underneath the market makes a dramatic price drop in Winnipeg’s affordable segments less likely than the gloomiest national headlines imply.
- Don’t try to time the market on a data revision. The honest answer is that nobody — not CIBC, not me — knows exactly how the September numbers will land. A revision is a reason to stay informed, not a reason to rush or to freeze.
The bottom line
The “Canada is shrinking” story was always a little too tidy, and it looks like the data behind it is about to get a second look. For Winnipeg buyers and owners, the practical message is reassuring but measured: our local demand base is probably sturdier than the scariest national forecasts suggest, but we’re still in a slower-growth era where careful planning beats guesswork.
If you’re weighing a purchase, a rental investment, or a renewal and you’re trying to figure out what all this macro noise actually means for your numbers, that’s exactly the conversation I love to have. Call me at 204-890-2446 or email ted@tedvailas.com, and we’ll cut through the headlines and look at your real situation.
Sources: CIBC Economics (Benjamin Tal) and Statistics Canada, as reported by Canadian Mortgage Trends, July 28, 2026. Figures cited are estimates and projections; Statistics Canada’s revised population data is expected in September 2026. This article is general information for Manitoba homeowners and buyers, not financial advice.