31 Jul

Is Canada Really Shrinking? Why a Coming StatCan Revision Matters for Winnipeg Housing

Latest News

Posted by: Ted Vailas

If you follow the headlines, you could be forgiven for thinking Canada is emptying out. For the first time in living memory, Statistics Canada reported that the country’s population actually shrank over the past year — an estimated drop of roughly 234,600 people between July 2025 and this past March, including a decline of about 55,000 in the first quarter of 2026 alone. That’s a genuinely unusual number for a country that has grown almost every single year since Confederation.

But here in Winnipeg, where so much of our housing demand is tied to newcomers settling in Manitoba, that story never quite matched what I see on the ground. And according to a new report from CIBC, the “shrinking Canada” narrative may be about to get rewritten.

What CIBC is actually saying

CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal — one of the most-watched voices in Canadian housing economics — argues that Statistics Canada has likely overstated how many temporary residents have left the country. Here’s the gist of his case: a large number of people whose study or work permits expired didn’t actually pack up and go home. Many stayed in Canada legally, having been granted extensions or bridged onto other forms of temporary status by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Those people are still here, still renting apartments, still buying groceries — but they slipped through the cracks of StatCan’s interim estimates.

StatCan has already signalled that its next population update, due in September, will contain “material revisions.” Tal expects the adjustments tied to non-permanent residents to be larger than usual. CIBC’s own math suggests the revisions could add roughly 160,000 people to 2025’s growth figure, and about 210,000 in each of 2026 and 2027, compared with today’s estimates.

Flip that around and the picture changes completely. Instead of a country that shrank last year, CIBC’s scenario has Canada growing — modestly, but growing — in 2025 and continuing to expand through 2026.

Let’s keep this in perspective

It’s important to be honest about scale here, because this is where a lot of coverage gets breathless. Even if CIBC is right, we are not returning to the immigration boom of a couple of years ago. Canada added an eye-popping 797,555 people in 2024. CIBC’s projections — after the expected upward revisions — still show growth of just 7,564 in 2025, about 56,000 in 2026, and 139,000 in 2027. The share of the population made up of non-permanent residents is still falling, from 7.7% in 2024 to a projected 6.1% in 2026.

So the takeaway isn’t “the floodgates are reopening.” It’s subtler and, for anyone making a housing decision, more useful: Canada probably isn’t shrinking, but growth has downshifted hard from a sprint to a walk. These are also estimates and projections, not confirmed figures — the actual revisions land in September, and even CIBC assumes only a partial correction.

Why a data revision matters for your mortgage decision

You might reasonably ask what a Statistics Canada footnote has to do with your mortgage. More than you’d think — because housing demand is downstream of how many people actually live here.

When forecasters believed the population was flat or falling, it fed a bearish story: fewer people, softer demand, weaker prices. Some national forecasts, including CMHC’s, have been leaning toward price softness on exactly that kind of reasoning. If it turns out there are hundreds of thousands more residents than the official count showed — people who need somewhere to live right now — then the assumed slack in the market is smaller than advertised. That’s especially true for rentals, which are the first stop for most newcomers before they buy.

There’s a knock-on effect worth flagging too: Tal notes the same revision could ripple into Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey, which folds in population changes on a 12-month rolling basis. A big upward revision would seep into the jobs data gradually, and could temporarily nudge the reported unemployment rate in ways that don’t reflect what’s really happening. The Bank of Canada watches that data closely when it sets rates — so a quirk in the population count can, indirectly, touch the very interest rate on your mortgage.

The Winnipeg and Manitoba angle

This is where it gets local. Manitoba’s population growth leans heavily on immigration, and our province has one of the country’s most active Provincial Nominee Programs — the Manitoba PNP has been a steady pipeline of newcomers who choose Winnipeg specifically because it’s affordable and welcoming. Add in international students at the University of Manitoba and University of Winnipeg, and you have a base of housing demand that doesn’t just evaporate when a national number ticks negative.

What does that mean in practical terms?

  • Rentals stay competitive. If Winnipeg has more residents than the official tally suggests, our already-tight rental vacancy is unlikely to loosen up much. For investors, that supports the case for a well-located rental — the kind I wrote about recently in my post on buying a rental property in Winnipeg.
  • Entry-level demand has a floor. Newcomers who rent for a couple of years are tomorrow’s first-time buyers. Steady population underneath the market makes a dramatic price drop in Winnipeg’s affordable segments less likely than the gloomiest national headlines imply.
  • Don’t try to time the market on a data revision. The honest answer is that nobody — not CIBC, not me — knows exactly how the September numbers will land. A revision is a reason to stay informed, not a reason to rush or to freeze.

The bottom line

The “Canada is shrinking” story was always a little too tidy, and it looks like the data behind it is about to get a second look. For Winnipeg buyers and owners, the practical message is reassuring but measured: our local demand base is probably sturdier than the scariest national forecasts suggest, but we’re still in a slower-growth era where careful planning beats guesswork.

If you’re weighing a purchase, a rental investment, or a renewal and you’re trying to figure out what all this macro noise actually means for your numbers, that’s exactly the conversation I love to have. Call me at 204-890-2446 or email ted@tedvailas.com, and we’ll cut through the headlines and look at your real situation.

Sources: CIBC Economics (Benjamin Tal) and Statistics Canada, as reported by Canadian Mortgage Trends, July 28, 2026. Figures cited are estimates and projections; Statistics Canada’s revised population data is expected in September 2026. This article is general information for Manitoba homeowners and buyers, not financial advice.

31 Jul

Co-Signing Your Adult Child’s Mortgage in Manitoba: What You’re Actually Agreeing To

Mortgage Tips

Posted by: Ted Vailas

Here’s a phone call I get more and more often in Winnipeg: “Ted, our daughter found a place she loves, but the lender says she doesn’t quite qualify on her own. They asked if one of us would co-sign. What are we actually signing up for?”

It’s a great question — and honestly, one that too many parents answer with a quick “sure, of course” before they understand what’s on the line. Co-signing can be a wonderful gift that gets your kid into their first home years earlier than they could manage alone. But it is not a favour like lending them your truck for a weekend. It’s a binding legal commitment that lands squarely on your credit, your borrowing power, and sometimes your tax situation. Let’s walk through exactly what you’d be agreeing to.

First, the big distinction: co-signer vs. guarantor

People use these words interchangeably. Lenders do not. The difference matters a lot for you as a parent.

A co-signer is added to both the mortgage and the property title. To the lender, you are a full co-borrower — jointly and severally liable for the entire debt. That legal phrase “jointly and severally” is the part to underline: it means if your child stops paying, you don’t owe half, you owe 100% of what’s left. You also become a registered owner of the home.

A guarantor goes on the mortgage only — no ownership stake, not on title. A guarantor typically only becomes liable after the lender has tried to collect from the primary borrower first, and staying off title can help you sidestep some of the tax and estate complications we’ll get to below.

Most parents assume they’re becoming a guarantor when they’re really being asked to co-sign. Always ask the lender — or your broker — which one it is, in writing, before you agree.

The part nobody warns you about: it counts as your debt

This is the single most important thing to understand. When you co-sign, that entire mortgage counts in full against your own Total Debt Service (TDS) ratio — even if you never make a single payment on it. As far as any future lender is concerned, it’s your debt.

Under CMHC guidelines, borrowers generally need to stay within roughly a 39% Gross Debt Service ratio and a 44% Total Debt Service ratio. If a big chunk of your TDS is now eaten up by your child’s mortgage, here’s what can happen to you:

  • You may not qualify to refinance your own home.
  • You could get turned down for a new car loan or lease.
  • A line of credit or business loan becomes harder to get.
  • If you were planning to buy a rental or a cottage, that plan may stall.

You didn’t spend a dollar, but your borrowing room shrank. For parents who are still working toward their own financial goals — or planning a retirement move — this is the trap that catches people off guard.

Your credit is now tied to their payment habits

Because you’re on the mortgage, the loan reports on your credit history too. When your child pays on time, that’s fine. But if a payment is missed — a job loss, a rough month, a simple oversight — that late payment can land on your credit report as well as theirs. One missed payment can meaningfully ding an otherwise spotless score.

The uncomfortable reality: you’re trusting not just your child’s intentions, but their month-to-month cash flow, for years. It’s worth an honest family conversation about what happens if money gets tight.

Manitoba angle: being on title has consequences beyond the mortgage

If you co-sign and end up on title here in Manitoba, a few local considerations come into play that are worth raising with a real estate lawyer and an accountant before you sign:

How you hold title. Co-owners are usually added as either joint tenants (with right of survivorship) or tenants in common. That choice affects what happens to the property if you or your child passes away, and it can interact with your estate plan in ways you may not intend.

Your principal residence exemption. You already own and live in your own home. If you’re also on title to your child’s property, that second home generally isn’t your principal residence — which can create a capital gains exposure on your share down the road. This is a big one and worth professional tax advice.

Creditor and relationship risk. If your name is on the title, your share of that home can potentially be exposed to your own creditors — or become tangled up if your child later marries, separates, or has a falling-out with a co-owner.

None of these are reasons to say no. They’re reasons to say “let me get proper advice first.” In many cases, a guarantor arrangement (mortgage only, off title) avoids these headaches entirely — which is exactly why it’s worth asking your broker whether that option is available.

You can’t just walk away later

Here’s what surprises people most: once you’re on, you can’t unilaterally remove yourself. The mortgage is a binding contract, and your name stays on it until one of these things happens:

  • The primary borrower refinances and qualifies on their own. This is a fresh mortgage application — they’ll need to meet the credit-score minimums, debt-ratio limits, and income verification without you. If they’ve grown their income and credit, great. If not, you’re still on the hook.
  • The home is sold and the mortgage is paid off.
  • The mortgage is paid out in full some other way.

And don’t assume “it’s just until the first renewal.” If your child still can’t qualify alone at renewal, the lender may want you to stay on. Go in expecting a multi-year commitment, and treat an earlier exit as a bonus.

So should you do it? A few questions to ask first

Co-signing is the right call for plenty of Winnipeg families — especially when a young buyer has solid income and a good down payment but just a short credit history. Before you commit, run through these:

  • Do I have my own borrowing plans in the next 3–5 years that this could block?
  • Can I comfortably cover this payment if I had to — even for a few months?
  • Would a guarantor arrangement work instead, keeping me off title?
  • Have I talked to a lawyer and accountant about the title and tax side?
  • Is there a realistic path for my child to refinance and release me in a few years?

If the answers line up, co-signing can be one of the most generous and effective things a parent can do. If they don’t, there are often other ways to help — a gifted down payment, for instance — that don’t put your own finances on the line.

Let’s map it out before you sign anything

The best time to understand a co-signing arrangement is before you agree to it, not after. I can walk you and your child through the numbers together — what it does to your borrowing room, whether a guarantor structure fits better, and what an exit plan looks like — so everyone signs with their eyes open.

Call me at 204-890-2446 or email ted@tedvailas.com, and let’s make sure this generous move is also a smart one.

This article is general information for Manitoba homeowners and buyers, not legal, tax, or financial advice. Title, estate, and tax outcomes depend on your specific situation — please confirm with a licensed lawyer and accountant before co-signing.

30 Jul

Buying a Rental Property in Winnipeg in 2026: How Lenders Count Rent Toward Your Mortgage

Mortgage Tips

Posted by: Ted Vailas

Winnipeg has quietly become one of the more interesting places in Canada to buy a rental property. Our market stayed firmly in seller’s territory this summer — June sales rose 2% year-over-year with a 70% sales-to-new-listings ratio — yet prices here are still a fraction of what you’d pay in Toronto or Vancouver, with the average home around $401,200. At the same time, the national rental picture is loosening: CMHC’s 2026 mid-year update shows the purpose-built vacancy rate climbing to 3.1% from 2.2% in 2024. For a Winnipeg investor, that combination — affordable entry prices, steady demand, and a bit more selection — is worth a serious look.

But there’s a catch that trips up almost every first-time investor I talk to: financing a rental works differently than financing the home you live in. Here’s exactly how lenders treat rental income and what you’ll need to qualify in 2026.

How much do you need down on a rental in Canada?

If the property is non-owner-occupied — meaning you won’t live in it — the minimum down payment on a one-to-four-unit rental is 20%. In practice, many lenders want 25% (and sometimes 30–35% on larger or higher-risk properties), so it’s smart to budget for 25% unless we’ve confirmed a 20% option that fits your profile.

There’s an important exception. If you buy a two-to-four-unit property and live in one of the units, you’re treated as an owner-occupant, and the down payment can be far lower — sometimes as little as 5–10% with an insured mortgage. This “house hack” is one of the most powerful ways to get into your first rental, but the rules are specific, so call me before you assume you qualify.

The part most buyers get wrong: how lenders count the rent

Here’s the good news — the rent your property earns can help you qualify. Lenders use one of two methods, and the difference matters a lot for how much you can borrow.

1. The rental offset method. The lender takes a portion of the gross rent — most A-lenders use 50% — and applies it against that property’s carrying costs (mortgage payment, property tax, heat). The idea is that roughly half the rent gets eaten up by vacancies, maintenance, and expenses, so they only credit you the conservative half. Some credit unions and B-lenders are more generous, using an 80–100% offset.

2. The add-back method. Instead of reducing the property’s costs, the lender adds a portion of the gross rent — commonly around 80% — straight onto your qualifying income. This is often more favourable than a 50% offset, which is exactly why having a broker who knows which lender uses which method is such an advantage.

A Winnipeg example

Say you’re buying a $350,000 rental and putting 25% down ($87,500), leaving a $262,500 mortgage. The unit rents for $1,900 a month, and the carrying costs (mortgage, taxes, heat) work out to roughly $1,850 a month.

  • With a 50% offset: the lender credits $950 of the rent against the $1,850 in carrying costs, so only about $900 a month counts against your debt ratios instead of the full $1,850.
  • With an 80% add-back: the lender adds roughly $1,520 a month to your income, which can meaningfully raise how much you qualify for.

Same property, same rent — but the lender and method we choose can be the difference between an approval and a decline. Remember that your qualifying payment is still stress-tested at your contract rate plus 2% (or the 5.25% floor, whichever is higher), and your debt ratios generally need to land under roughly 39% GDS and 44% TDS.

What changed for investors in 2026

One rule tightened this year. Lenders will no longer let you use the same rental income to qualify for several mortgages at once — each investment property now has to stand on its own. OSFI confirmed in late 2025 that rental income can still be used to qualify (including for people who own more than one property), but expect more thorough documentation. Be ready to provide signed leases, your T776 or tax returns showing rental history, and often an appraiser’s market-rent estimate for the unit.

What rising vacancies mean for you

A higher national vacancy rate isn’t bad news for a careful buyer — it just changes the math. With more units available, you have a little more negotiating room on price and can afford to be picky about a property that will actually rent. But it also means you shouldn’t count on aggressive rent increases or zero vacancy in your numbers. Build a realistic vacancy and maintenance cushion into your budget, and the deal that still works on paper is the one worth pursuing.

Thinking about your first — or next — rental?

Every rental deal comes down to two questions: how much do you need down, and how much of the rent will a lender actually count? Get those right up front and the rest of the process is straightforward. Before you make an offer, let’s run your specific numbers through a few lenders and find the one that stretches your approval the furthest.

Call me at 204-890-2446 or email ted@tedvailas.com, and let’s map out a plan for your Winnipeg rental.

27 Jul

Porting vs. Breaking Your Mortgage in Manitoba: The Penalty Math Before You Move

Mortgage Tips

Posted by: Ted Vailas

Here’s a call I get almost every week in Winnipeg: “Ted, we found a bigger place — but we’ve still got three years left on our mortgage at a rate we’ll never see again. Are we going to get hammered with a penalty?”

It’s a fair worry. A huge number of Manitoba homeowners are sitting on five-year fixed rates of 2% or less that they locked in back in 2021. Now the kids need more room, or a job change means a move across town, and the fear is that touching that mortgage means kissing the rate goodbye and paying a fat penalty on the way out.

The good news: in most move-up situations there’s a way to keep your low rate and avoid a penalty entirely. But to know whether that’s the right move, you need to understand the two paths — porting and breaking — and the math behind each. Let’s walk through it.

First, what actually happens to your mortgage when you move?

When you sell your home and buy another, you have three basic options:

1. Port it. Porting means you take your existing mortgage — same rate, same remaining term, same balance — and move it over to the new property. Your 2.1% doesn’t change. You just re-attach it to a different address.

2. Port and increase (also called “blend and extend”). This is the most common scenario I see, because most people who are moving are buying up. You keep your existing balance at your old low rate, and the extra money you need for the bigger home is added at today’s rate. The two rates get blended into one.

3. Break it. You pay off the old mortgage completely, pay a prepayment penalty, and start a brand-new mortgage — possibly with a different lender. This is the option people fear, but sometimes it’s the right one.

The important thing to know: porting keeps you with your current lender. If you want to move your mortgage to a different lender when you buy, that counts as breaking — and that’s when a penalty comes into play.

How mortgage penalties are actually calculated

If you do break a fixed-rate mortgage in Canada, the penalty is the greater of two calculations:

Three months’ interest. Exactly what it sounds like — three months of interest on your current balance. On a $400,000 balance at 2.1%, that’s roughly:

$400,000 × 2.1% × 3/12 = about $2,100

The Interest Rate Differential (IRD). This one is designed to compensate the lender for the interest they’ll miss out on. Very roughly, it’s the gap between your rate and the lender’s comparison rate for your remaining term, applied to your balance over the time you have left. Be aware that the Big banks calculate IRD using their posted rates minus your original discount — a method that can inflate the penalty well beyond what a monoline or credit union would charge using their actual rates.

Here’s the part that’s genuinely good news for a lot of 2021-era borrowers: IRD only bites when your rate is higher than today’s comparison rate. If you locked in at 2.1% and comparable rates today are near 3.9%, the “differential” runs in your favour — so the IRD calculation comes out to essentially nothing, and your penalty defaults to the smaller three-months’-interest figure. Breaking a rock-bottom rate is often far cheaper than people assume.

(The flip side: if you renewed at a higher rate more recently and rates have since fallen, your IRD could be substantial. This is exactly why you should never guess — always get a payout statement from your lender for the exact number.)

A real Winnipeg move-up example

Let’s make this concrete. Say you’ve got a bungalow in River Heights and you’re moving up to a $550,000 home. Your numbers:

• Current mortgage balance: $400,000
• Your rate: 2.1% fixed, with about 2 years left
• New money needed: $150,000

Option A — Break and start fresh. You’d pay a penalty (in this case roughly $2,100, since your low rate means the IRD is a non-issue), then finance the full $550,000 at today’s rate — call it 3.94%. Simple, but you’ve thrown away your 2.1% on the whole balance.

Option B — Port and increase (blend and extend). You keep your $400,000 at 2.1% and add the new $150,000 at 3.94%. Blended together:

($400,000 × 2.1%) + ($150,000 × 3.94%) = $8,400 + $5,910 = $14,310
$14,310 ÷ $550,000 = a blended rate of about 2.60%

A blended 2.60% versus 3.94% on the entire $550,000 is a difference of roughly $7,000 in interest in the first year alone — and there’s no prepayment penalty, just a small porting admin fee (typically $100–$300). For most move-up buyers, porting-and-increasing is the clear winner.

The fine print on porting

Porting is powerful, but it comes with conditions worth knowing before you fall in love with a new listing:

You have to re-qualify. Porting isn’t automatic. You’ll need to pass the mortgage stress test and prove your income all over again, just like a new application. If your income has dropped or your debts have grown since you first qualified, that’s the piece to sort out early.

There’s a time window. Most lenders give you somewhere between 30 and 120 days to close on the new home after selling the old one. Move outside that window and you may lose the ability to port.

Same lender only. You can only port to a mortgage with your current lender. If a different lender is offering a much better deal on your new purchase, you’ll have to weigh those savings against the penalty to break.

Use your prepayment privilege first. If you do end up breaking, making your annual lump-sum prepayment beforehand shrinks the balance the penalty is calculated on — a simple way to trim the cost.

The bottom line

Moving doesn’t have to mean giving up the best mortgage rate you’ll ever have. In the great majority of Winnipeg move-up situations, porting-and-increasing lets you carry your low rate forward and only pay today’s rate on the new money — no penalty required. But the right answer depends on your exact numbers: your balance, your rate, your remaining term, and how much more you’re borrowing.

Before you list your home or make an offer on the next one, let’s run your actual numbers side by side so you know exactly what porting versus breaking would cost you. It takes about ten minutes and it can save you thousands.

Call me at 204-890-2446 or email ted@tedvailas.com, and we’ll map out the smartest way to bring your mortgage along for the move.

Rates and figures used above are illustrative examples current as of July 2026 and will vary by lender and by your individual situation. Always request a payout statement from your lender for your exact penalty.

23 Jul

Buying a Home After Divorce or Separation in Manitoba: Spousal Buyouts, Splitting Equity, and Qualifying on One Income

General

Posted by: Ted Vailas

Separation is hard enough without a mortgage puzzle sitting on top of it. But it’s one of the most common calls I get: “Ted, we’re splitting up — can I keep the house?” The honest answer is usually yes, more often than people expect. The catch is that the path to keeping your home after a separation looks very different from a normal purchase or refinance, and a few Manitoba-specific rules decide how the whole thing plays out.

Here’s a plain-language walkthrough of how a spousal buyout works in Manitoba, how the equity gets split, and how you qualify when your household just went from two incomes to one.

First, how Manitoba splits the home

Under Manitoba’s Family Property Act, both spouses have a right to an equal share in the value of family property when they separate — regardless of whose name is on the title. The family home gets special status: it’s subject to a 50/50 division even if one spouse owned it before the marriage. That’s different from most other pre-marriage assets, which can sometimes be excluded.

The split is based on an “accounting” — a full list of each partner’s assets and debts valued as of the date of separation. The home’s equity (its market value minus the mortgage balance and selling-related costs) becomes part of that equalization. This also applies to many common-law partners in Manitoba, either after registering the relationship with Vital Statistics or after living together for the period the law specifies.

What this means in practice: if you want to keep the house, you generally have to buy out your former partner’s share of the equity. That’s where the mortgage side comes in.

The Spousal Buyout Program: refinance up to 95%

Normally, when you refinance a home in Canada, you can only borrow up to 80% of its value. That’s a problem in a separation, because pulling out enough equity to pay your ex their half often needs more than that.

This is where the Spousal Buyout Program changes the math. Backed by Canada’s three mortgage default insurers — CMHC, Sagen, and Canada Guaranty — it lets the spouse keeping the home borrow up to 95% of the property’s appraised value, specifically to buy out the departing partner. The key trick is that the transaction is treated under purchase rules rather than refinance rules, which is why that higher limit is available. The equity you pay to your former spouse effectively acts as the down payment.

A quick example. Say your Winnipeg home appraises at $450,000 and you owe $250,000. That’s $200,000 in equity — $100,000 each. Under a normal 80% refinance you could only borrow $360,000, which after paying off your existing mortgage leaves $110,000 — just barely enough, and only if nothing else needs covering. Under the spousal buyout program at 95%, you can borrow up to $427,500, giving you room to pay off the mortgage, hand your ex their $100,000, and cover legal and closing costs without draining your savings.

What lenders need to see

The single most important document is a signed separation agreement that clearly spells out the asset division — specifically, that you’re keeping the home and what you owe the other party. Lenders will not proceed on a handshake; the buyout amount has to be documented. A few other conditions:

  • The home must be the owner-occupied primary residence — this program isn’t for rentals or vacation properties.
  • You’ll generally want a credit score around 680 or higher to access the best rates and the full 95% option.
  • The buyout proceeds can only be used to pay out the former spouse’s share (and, in many cases, to consolidate joint debt named in the agreement) — not to fund a renovation or a car.
  • You’ll need to pass the mortgage stress test, qualifying at the higher of 5.25% or your contract rate plus 2%.

Qualifying on one income

This is the part that worries people most, and understandably — you’re now carrying the whole mortgage on your own. A few things to know about how lenders look at your situation:

If you receive support: child support and spousal support can often be counted as income, as long as it’s consistent and well documented (your separation agreement or court order, plus proof of regular payments). There are limits — lenders typically won’t let child support make up more than 50% of your qualifying income, and if spousal support is more than roughly 30% of your total income, they’ll want other verifiable income covering the rest. Note that spousal support is taxable income to the person receiving it, while child support is not.

If you pay support: those payments count against you as a monthly liability, which lowers the mortgage amount you qualify for — the same way a car loan or credit-card minimum would. It’s not a dealbreaker, but it’s important to have the real numbers on the table early so there are no surprises.

If your income is close to the line, there are levers we can pull: a co-signer, a longer amortization to lower the payment, or extending the buyout timeline until your income picture is more settled. And if a bank says no, that’s not always the final word — alternative and monoline lenders sometimes have more flexibility with support income and recent life changes.

A few things that trip people up

Timing matters. It’s usually cleaner to arrange the buyout after the separation agreement is signed, because the lender needs those terms in writing. Get your home appraised by a professional rather than guessing — the buyout number depends on it, and in a tight Winnipeg market values have moved. And don’t forget the smaller costs: legal fees, the appraisal, potential mortgage penalties if you’re breaking your existing term early, and title changes to remove your former partner from the mortgage and the deed. Removing someone from title without refinancing the mortgage they’re still legally attached to is a common and costly mistake.

You don’t have to figure this out alone

Every separation is different, and the mortgage piece is one of the few parts of the process you can actually get certainty on early. If you’re going through a separation and wondering whether keeping your home is realistic — or whether it even makes financial sense — let’s run the real numbers before you make any decisions.

Call me at 204-890-2446 or email ted@tedvailas.com, and we’ll walk through your options confidentially, at your pace.

This article is general information, not legal or financial advice. Family property rules and mortgage eligibility depend on your specific circumstances — please confirm details with your family lawyer and mortgage professional.

21 Jul

FHSA + Home Buyers’ Plan: How a Couple Can Stack $200,000 Tax-Free for a First Home

Mortgage Tips

Posted by: Ted Vailas

Here’s a question I get almost every week from first-time buyers in Winnipeg: “I’ve got an FHSA and I’ve got some RRSP savings — do I have to pick one?”

No. You can use both, for the same house, in the same transaction. And when you do the math, the numbers get big fast. A single buyer can pull up to $100,000 out of these two programs. A couple buying together can reach $200,000.

That’s not a theoretical number in this market. The average detached home in Winnipeg sold for $483,910 in June 2026. A 20% down payment on that is about $96,800 — meaning one person who maxed both programs could cover the entire down payment on an average Winnipeg house without touching a non-registered dollar.

But there’s an order of operations here, and a rule change that took effect this year that a lot of people haven’t caught yet. Let’s walk through it.

The two programs, briefly

The FHSA (First Home Savings Account) is the newer one, and it’s the better of the two. You contribute up to $8,000 a year, to a $40,000 lifetime maximum. Contributions are tax-deductible going in, like an RRSP. Qualifying withdrawals for a first home come out completely tax-free, like a TFSA. And you never pay it back.

That combination — deductible in, tax-free out, no repayment — doesn’t exist anywhere else in the Canadian tax system. If you’re a first-time buyer and you don’t have an FHSA open, that’s the single highest-value thing you could do this week.

The RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) is the older one. You can withdraw up to $60,000 from your RRSP toward a first home. It’s tax-free at withdrawal — but it’s a loan to yourself. You repay it into your RRSP over 15 years, and if you miss a year’s payment, that amount gets added to your taxable income.

Both are per person. Two first-time buyers each maxing both: $80,000 in FHSA plus $120,000 in HBP. Two hundred thousand dollars.

The 2026 change most buyers haven’t heard about

This is the part that matters right now.

For HBP withdrawals made between January 1, 2022 and December 31, 2025, the government temporarily extended the repayment grace period from two years to five. It was a pandemic-era affordability measure, and it was genuinely helpful — five years of no required repayments while you settled into a new mortgage.

That extension expired. Withdrawals made from January 1, 2026 onward are back to the standard two-year grace period.

The practical difference is stark. Someone who made their first HBP withdrawal in December 2025 doesn’t have to start repaying until 2030. Someone who withdrew in January 2026 starts repaying in 2028. Same program, two weeks apart, three years of difference.

On a full $60,000 withdrawal, the minimum annual repayment is 1/15 of the balance — $4,000 a year. If you’re buying in Winnipeg this year and using the HBP, budget for that $4,000 starting in 2028. It’s not a mortgage payment, but it’s real, and if you don’t make it, CRA adds it to your income for that year and taxes it.

This is a good argument for leaning harder on the FHSA side of the stack where you have the choice. FHSA money never has to go back.

The order of operations

Here’s how I’d sequence it for a client starting from scratch.

Step one: open an FHSA today, even with $1 in it.

This is the mistake I see most often, and it’s an expensive one. FHSA contribution room does not accrue automatically the way RRSP and TFSA room does. It starts the year you open the account. If you were eligible in 2023 and only open your FHSA in 2027, you don’t get four years of backdated room — you get one year, $8,000.

Open the account. Fund it later if you need to. The clock only runs once you’ve started it.

Step two: understand the carry-forward, because it’s limited.

Once your FHSA is open, unused room carries forward — but only up to $8,000 at a time. So the most you can ever put in during a single year is $16,000: your current $8,000 plus one year of carried-forward room. You can’t skip three years and then dump $32,000 in. The lifetime cap stays at $40,000 regardless, but the annual ceiling limits how fast you can get there.

Step three: watch the December 31 deadline.

RRSP contributions get a 60-day grace period into the new year — you can contribute in February and claim it against the previous tax year. FHSA contributions do not. The deadline is a hard December 31. Every year I have clients who assume the RRSP rule applies and lose a year of deduction on the last day of December. Set a reminder for early December.

Step four: mind the 90-day rule on the RRSP side.

Money you contribute to an RRSP must sit there for at least 90 days before it can be withdrawn under the Home Buyers’ Plan. You can’t drop $30,000 into an RRSP in March, take the deduction, and pull it out for an April closing. Plan the RRSP side at least three months ahead of your expected withdrawal.

Step five: withdraw from both for the same purchase.

You’re allowed to make an FHSA qualifying withdrawal and an HBP withdrawal for the same qualifying home, provided you meet each program’s conditions at the time of each withdrawal. They’re separate forms and separate rules, but they are not mutually exclusive.

A Winnipeg example

Say you and your partner are buying a detached home at $480,000 — right around the June 2026 average.

You’ve each had an FHSA open for three years and contributed $24,000 each. You each have $30,000 in RRSPs that’s been sitting more than 90 days.

  • FHSA withdrawals: $48,000 combined, tax-free, never repaid
  • HBP withdrawals: $60,000 combined, tax-free, repaid over 15 years starting 2028
  • Total down payment: $108,000 — about 22.5% down

At over 20% down you’re into conventional mortgage territory, which means no CMHC default insurance premium. On a $480,000 purchase, that premium alone would have run into the thousands. And you avoided it entirely with money you’d already deducted from your taxable income on the way in.

Your future repayment obligation: $4,000 a year into your RRSPs, combined, beginning in 2028. Worth knowing about now, while you’re setting the household budget, rather than discovering it on a tax slip.

Who qualifies

Both programs use a “first-time home buyer” definition, and it’s more forgiving than most people assume. Broadly, you qualify if you haven’t lived in a home you or your spouse owned during the current calendar year or the four preceding calendar years. That means people who owned before — after a divorce, after a few years renting, after a move for work — often re-qualify. I’ve had clients in their forties who assumed they were permanently disqualified and weren’t.

The conditions differ slightly between the two programs, and there are timing requirements around having a written purchase agreement and intending to occupy the home. If you’re close to the line on the four-year window, that’s worth confirming before you withdraw rather than after.

The takeaway

The FHSA is the better of the two instruments and should be your first stop. The HBP is still worth using, especially at 20% down where it can push you past the insurance threshold — just go in knowing that a 2026 withdrawal starts repaying in 2028, not 2030.

If you’re planning a purchase in the next couple of years and want to map out which accounts to draw from and in what order, that’s a conversation worth having before you’re under contract, not during. Give me a call at 204-890-2446 or send me a note at ted@tedvailas.com and we’ll put the numbers on paper.

This article is general information, not tax advice. Contribution limits, eligibility, and repayment rules can change, and individual situations vary — confirm the specifics with CRA or your accountant before making a withdrawal.

17 Jul

Gifted Down Payments in Canada: Rules, Gift Letters, and What Lenders Check

General

Posted by: Ted Vailas

Nearly one in three first-time homebuyers in Canada now gets help with their down payment from family — and the average gift has climbed to about $115,000 nationally. What used to be an occasional boost has become a normal part of buying a first home.

The good news: lenders are perfectly comfortable with gifted down payments. But they have rules, and a gift that isn’t documented properly can slow down — or sink — an otherwise solid mortgage approval. Here’s how gifted down payments actually work in Canada, what needs to be in the gift letter, and the mistakes I see most often as a Winnipeg mortgage broker.

Who Is Allowed to Gift a Down Payment?

For an insured mortgage (less than 20% down), the gift generally has to come from an immediate family member — someone related to you by blood, marriage, common-law partnership, or adoption. That means:

  • Parents
  • Grandparents
  • Siblings
  • Children
  • A spouse or common-law partner

Aunts, uncles, cousins, and family friends usually don’t qualify with most lenders on insured files. If your help is coming from outside the immediate family, talk to a broker first — some lenders and conventional (20%+ down) mortgages have more flexibility, but it needs to be structured correctly from the start.

Is There a Limit? Is It Taxed?

Two pieces of good news:

  1. There’s no gift tax in Canada. Your parents can gift you money for a home and neither of you pays tax on the transfer.
  2. There’s no legal limit on how much family can gift toward a down payment.

One thing to remember: even with a large gift, you still need to show the lender you can afford the mortgage payments on your own income. A gift solves the down payment — it doesn’t replace qualification.

The Gift Letter: What Lenders Require

Every lender will require a signed gift letter. It’s usually a one-page template from the lender or your broker, and it confirms:

  • Who is giving the gift and their relationship to you
  • The exact dollar amount
  • The date the funds were (or will be) transferred
  • That the money is a true gift with no repayment required
  • That the giver claims no ownership interest in the property

Those last two points matter most. If the money has to be paid back, it’s not a gift — it’s a loan, and lenders treat it completely differently. A repayable “gift” must be disclosed and gets added to your debt ratios, which can reduce how much you qualify for. Signing a gift letter for money you secretly plan to repay is misrepresentation. Don’t do it.

The Paper Trail: What Lenders Actually Check

The gift letter alone isn’t enough. Lenders (and mortgage insurers like CMHC) also want to see the money move. Expect to provide:

  • Proof of transfer — a bank record showing the funds leaving the giver’s account and landing in yours
  • Your account statement showing the deposit
  • Sometimes, confirmation the funds are in your account before closing (many lenders like to see the gift deposited 15+ days before, and ideally before the application goes in)

Why so picky? Anti-money-laundering rules require lenders to confirm the source of every down payment dollar. A large, unexplained cash deposit is a red flag that can stall your file.

5 Common Gifted Down Payment Mistakes

  1. Depositing cash. Physical cash has no paper trail. Gifts should move bank account to bank account.
  2. Last-minute transfers. A gift that lands two days before closing creates a paperwork scramble. Move the money early.
  3. Calling a loan a gift. If it’s repayable, it must be disclosed. There are honest ways to structure family loans — talk to your broker.
  4. Gifts from overseas accounts. These are workable but need extra documentation and more lead time. Flag it early.
  5. Not telling your broker. The earlier your broker knows a gift is part of the plan, the smoother everything goes.

The Winnipeg Advantage: A Gift Goes Further Here

Here’s some perspective for Manitoba buyers: the average detached home in Winnipeg was about $484,000 in June 2026. The minimum down payment on that home is roughly $23,400 — compared to well over $50,000 in markets like Toronto or Vancouver, where average family gifts now run $128,000 to $204,000.

In Winnipeg, even a modest family gift of $15,000–$25,000 can be the difference between waiting another two years and buying this fall — or the difference between 5% down and a larger down payment that lowers your mortgage insurance premium.

The Bottom Line

Gifted down payments are common, legal, tax-free, and welcomed by lenders — as long as the gift comes from an immediate family member, is documented with a proper gift letter, and has a clean paper trail. Get the paperwork right early and a gift makes your approval stronger, not more complicated. If you’re getting pre-approved, mention the gift up front.

Thinking about buying with help from family? I’ll walk you and your family through exactly what your lender will need — before you make an offer. Call me at 204-890-2446 or get in touch here.

15 Jul

Bank of Canada Holds at 2.25% Again (July 15): What Today’s Decision Means for Your Mortgage

Latest News

Posted by: Ted Vailas

This morning, the Bank of Canada announced it’s holding its overnight rate at 2.25% — the sixth consecutive hold since October 2025. If you have a variable-rate mortgage, are staring down a renewal, or are trying to decide whether now is the time to buy in Winnipeg, you’re probably asking the same question I hear every day: what does this actually mean for me?

Here’s my plain-English breakdown of the July 2026 Bank of Canada rate announcement — and the practical moves worth considering right now.

What the Bank of Canada Announced on July 15

The Bank held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5%. That keeps prime rate at Canada’s big banks sitting at 4.45%, which means variable-rate mortgage holders will see no change to their payments.

Why did they hold? A few key points from today’s announcement and Monetary Policy Report:

  • Inflation is elevated but not broad-based. CPI inflation rose to 3.2% in May, mainly because of higher gasoline prices linked to the war in the Middle East. Strip out gas, and inflation was just 2.2% — with core measures close to the 2% target.
  • The economy is recovering. Growth is estimated at 2.5% in the second quarter, and the Bank expects the recovery to continue into 2027.
  • Inflation should ease. The Bank projects inflation returning to around 2% by early 2027, assuming oil prices cooperate.

The Bank’s Governing Council said the current rate “remains appropriate to sustain the economic recovery” — in other words, they’re comfortable staying put. The next rate decision isn’t until September 2, 2026.

If You Have a Variable-Rate Mortgage

No change today means no change to your payment. Variable rates remain around 3.25% for well-qualified borrowers — the lowest widely available mortgage rates in Canada right now.

The bigger takeaway: with the Bank signalling a steady hand and most economists expecting the rate to stay at 2.25% for much of the year, the odds of a sudden payment increase look low. But the Bank was clear that risks remain — the Middle East conflict and U.S. trade policy could still push inflation (and eventually rates) around. If a rate increase would strain your budget, this stability window is a good time to review whether locking in makes sense.

If You’re Renewing Your Mortgage in 2026

This is the big one. Roughly half of all Canadian mortgages come up for renewal in 2026, and many Winnipeg homeowners who locked in five-year fixed rates below 2.5% in 2021 are renewing into rates a full point or more higher.

Two things you need to know:

  1. Your bank’s renewal letter is a starting point, not the final word. Lenders count on you signing without shopping around.
  2. You can now switch lenders at renewal without re-passing the stress test. Straight renewal switches no longer require you to requalify at a higher rate — meaning you’re free to chase the best rate on the market, not just the best rate your current bank feels like offering.

I have a full Mortgage Renewal Guide for Winnipeg Homeowners that walks through the process step by step.

Fixed or Variable Right Now? The Gap Is Unusually Wide

Today’s hold keeps one of the more interesting dynamics of 2026 in place: the gap between fixed and variable rates is nearly a full percentage point. Five-year fixed rates are around 3.94%, while five-year variables sit near 3.25%.

That gap is the widest we’ve seen in years, and it changes the math:

  • Variable saves you real money today and benefits further if the Bank eventually cuts — but you carry the risk if inflation flares up again.
  • Fixed costs more now, but buys certainty through a period the Bank itself calls highly uncertain.

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer — it depends on your budget, your risk tolerance, and how long you plan to stay in your home. My Fixed vs. Variable guide covers the trade-offs in more detail.

If You’re Buying in Winnipeg This Year

Stable rates are quietly good news for buyers. National home sales have climbed for three straight months, and with the delayed spring market pushing activity into the second half of the year, competition may pick up this fall. A rate hold means the pre-approval you get today should still reflect reality 120 days from now — so getting pre-approved locks in your rate protection while you shop.

The Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada is on hold, likely into the fall. That gives variable-rate holders breathing room, renewers a stable window to shop aggressively, and buyers rate certainty heading into the second half of 2026. The next announcement is September 2 — but you don’t need to wait for the Bank to make your next move.

Renewing, buying, or just wondering if your rate is still competitive? I shop 90+ lenders to find you the best mortgage at no cost to you. Call me at 204-890-2446 or apply online and I’ll take a look at your situation.

Source: Bank of Canada press release, July 15, 2026

13 Jul

Why Home Insurance Is Now a Mortgage Problem in Winnipeg

Mortgage Tips

Posted by: Ted Vailas

If you’re buying a home in Winnipeg this year, there’s a step in your mortgage that used to be an afterthought — and it isn’t anymore.

Every lender in Canada requires proof of home insurance before your mortgage can close. No policy, no keys. For decades, that was a ten-minute phone call. But after this June’s flooding across Manitoba left thousands of homeowners discovering — too late — what their policies didn’t cover, and with premiums across Canada up 45% since the end of 2019, home insurance has quietly become something that can delay your closing, shrink your budget, or both.

Here’s what Winnipeg buyers and homeowners need to know.

No Insurance, No Mortgage

When your lender approves your mortgage, they’re lending against the house itself. That’s why every lender requires an active home insurance policy — with the lender listed as “loss payee” — in place before closing day.

Your lawyer will ask for proof of insurance before funds are advanced. If you can’t produce it, your closing doesn’t happen on time. In most transactions this is routine. But in 2026, two things are making it less routine: rising premiums and insurers getting pickier about what — and where — they’ll cover.

What Happened in Manitoba This June

This spring’s storms and flooding hit Manitoba hard, and the aftermath exposed a gap many homeowners didn’t know they had. CBC reported “mass confusion” over what insurance actually covers — because roughly half of Manitoba homeowners have no overland flood coverage at all.

Here’s the part that surprises people: a standard home insurance policy does not cover overland flooding (water flowing in from outside) or sewer backup. Both are optional add-ons. They’re separate add-ons, too — homeowners with sewer backup coverage but not overland water coverage found their claims denied after June’s storms.

The province stepped in with a flood recovery program for those without adequate coverage. But a one-time grant is not a substitute for insurance — and your mortgage lender doesn’t accept disaster assistance as proof of coverage.

Premiums Are Rising Faster Than Inflation

Across Canada, weather-related insurance claims hit a record $9.4 billion in 2024, and insurers have passed those costs along. Home and mortgage insurance premiums rose 45% between December 2019 and December 2025 — more than double the pace of overall inflation.

In Winnipeg, where the average home now sells for about $427,000, insurance is a growing line in your monthly budget. Your mortgage stress test won’t capture it, but your bank account will. And insurers aren’t just raising prices — many are raising deductibles and excluding higher-risk properties. In Manitoba, overland water endorsements now commonly carry a minimum $2,500 deductible, and homes in known flood-prone areas may not be able to get the coverage at all.

What Winnipeg Buyers Should Do Before Firming Up an Offer

A few practical steps can keep insurance from becoming a closing-day surprise:

  1. Get an insurance quote before you waive conditions. Don’t wait until the week before closing. If the property is near the Red or Assiniboine, in a low-lying area, or has an older roof, wiring, or plumbing, quotes can come back higher than expected — or with exclusions.
  2. Ask specifically about overland water AND sewer backup. They are two different add-ons. In Winnipeg, with our spring thaw and summer storms, you likely want both.
  3. Check the home’s claims history. A property with past water claims can be harder or costlier to insure. Your insurance broker can help you check before you buy.
  4. Budget the real premium into your affordability math. A few hundred dollars a month difference in carrying costs matters, especially for first-time buyers stretching to qualify.

Renewing or Refinancing? This Affects You Too

If your mortgage is up for renewal, your insurance costs have likely jumped since your last term — worth factoring in when comparing your renewal offer against what other lenders can do. And if you’re refinancing to consolidate debt or fund renovations, an updated insurance policy that reflects your home’s current replacement cost is part of the file.

The Bottom Line

Home insurance used to be the last box you checked before closing. In 2026, it belongs near the top of your list — right after your mortgage pre-approval. Rising premiums, higher deductibles, and coverage gaps around flooding mean Winnipeg buyers should know what a home will cost to insure before they commit to buying it.

If you’re planning a purchase, renewal, or refinance and want to make sure your whole file — not just your rate — is in order, I’m happy to help. I shop 90+ lenders to find the mortgage that fits, at no cost to you.

Call 204-890-2446 or apply online to get started.

12 Jul

Renewing in 2026? You May Not Need to Pass the Stress Test to Switch Lenders

Latest News

Posted by: Ted Vailas

2026 is the biggest mortgage renewal year Canada has ever seen. Nearly half of all Canadian mortgages — more than one million households — come up for renewal this year, and roughly 70% of all mortgages in the country will have renewed by the end of 2026. Many of those homeowners locked in rates of 2% or less back in 2020–2021, and about 60% of borrowers renewing in 2025 and 2026 are expected to see their payments go up.

Here’s the part many Canadians still don’t know: if you’re renewing in 2026, you may be able to switch to a completely different lender — for a better rate — without having to pass the mortgage stress test. That changes the renewal game entirely, and it means accepting your bank’s first offer could be the most expensive mistake you make this year.

What Changed: The Stress Test No Longer Applies to “Straight Switches”

The mortgage stress test requires you to qualify at the higher of 5.25% or your contract rate plus 2%. For years, it created a frustrating trap at renewal: your existing lender didn’t have to re-test you, but a competing lender did. Many borrowers who could easily afford their payments couldn’t “qualify” to move — so they stayed put and paid more.

That trap is gone. As of November 21, 2024, OSFI (Canada’s banking regulator) no longer requires the stress test when borrowers with uninsured mortgages (those who put down 20% or more) switch lenders at renewal in what’s called a straight switch. Borrowers with insured mortgages (less than 20% down) are exempt too, so the change now covers essentially everyone doing a straight switch at renewal.

To qualify as a straight switch, two things must stay the same:

  • Your loan amount — you’re not borrowing additional money
  • Your amortization schedule — you’re not stretching out the timeline

Keep those the same, and you can move your mortgage to whichever lender offers the best deal, qualifying at the actual rate you’ll pay — not an inflated test rate.

Why This Matters So Much in 2026

Two reasons: the renewal wave and today’s rate environment.

First, the sheer size of the 2026 renewal wave means lenders are competing hard for your business. With over a million mortgages up for grabs, banks know that borrowers can now walk — and that gives you real negotiating power for the first time in years.

Second, rates have come down meaningfully from their peaks. The Bank of Canada’s policy rate sits at 2.25%, and as of early July 2026, the best 5-year fixed rates are around 3.94–4.09% while 5-year variable rates are hovering near 3.45% — a nearly full percentage point gap between fixed and variable, the widest in years. If you’re renewing off a 2021 rate, your payment will likely rise. But the difference between your bank’s “posted” renewal offer and the best rate a broker can find across 90+ lenders can easily be half a percent or more.

What Half a Percent Actually Costs You

On a $400,000 mortgage with 20 years remaining, the difference between renewing at 4.5% and 4.0% is roughly $105 per month — about $6,300 across a 5-year term. That’s money your bank is counting on you leaving on the table when you sign their renewal letter without shopping around.

When the Stress Test Still Applies

The exemption is specifically for straight switches at renewal. You’ll still need to pass the stress test if you’re:

  • Buying a home with a new mortgage
  • Refinancing — increasing your loan amount to pull out equity
  • Extending your amortization to lower your payment
  • Adding or removing a borrower in some cases, depending on the lender

That said, even if your situation isn’t a straight switch, don’t assume you’re stuck. Qualification rules vary by lender, and a mortgage professional can often find options your bank never mentions.

How to Take Advantage at Your 2026 Renewal

  1. Start early. Most lenders let you lock a renewal rate 120 days (sometimes more) before your maturity date. If your renewal is coming up this fall, the time to shop is now — especially with the Bank of Canada’s next rate decision on July 15.
  2. Don’t sign the first renewal letter. Banks routinely send renewal offers above their own best rates, counting on convenience and inertia.
  3. Keep your loan amount and amortization unchanged if you want the stress-test exemption to apply.
  4. Have a broker shop the market for you. A licensed mortgage professional compares dozens of lenders at once — banks, credit unions, trusts, and monoline lenders — at no cost to you.

The Bottom Line

For the first time in years, renewing Canadians have genuine leverage. The stress test no longer locks you into your current lender, more than a million households are renewing in 2026, and lenders are competing for that business. The only borrowers who lose in this environment are the ones who sign the bank’s first offer without looking.

Renewing in 2026? Let’s make sure you’re not leaving thousands on the table. I’ll review your renewal offer and shop 90+ lenders to find your best rate — at no cost to you. Contact me or start your application today.

Ted Vailas is a Winnipeg mortgage professional with Dominion Lending Centres Mainstream Mortgages. Reach him at 204-890-2446 or ted@tedvailas.com.